with the skill
## Pre-Mortem Analysis: Rivertown Meal-Kit Launch (Nov 16)
**Scenario:** It's a few weeks after launch and it went badly. The most likely story is that we sold more boxes than we could deliver, and the people who came in on the 50% promo had a bad first experience.
I worked only from the four facts you gave me. Anything beyond them is flagged as an assumption or an Elephant.
---
### Tigers (Real Risks)
**1. Delivery capacity is about 35% short of forecast (Launch-Blocking)**
- 40 drivers × 18 deliveries = **720/day**, against a forecast of **1,100/day**. That's a gap of **380 orders a day**.
- Hitting 1,100 needs at least **62 drivers**. Allowing for ~10% absence, attrition, and bad-route days, plan for about **68**.
- With 40 drivers, a realistic ceiling is about 650 orders/day.
- The radio promo starts Nov 9, a week before launch, so we are creating demand we can't serve. Late or missed first boxes from a half-price promo mean refunds, churn, and bad reviews.
- If the forecast is low (see Elephants), the gap gets bigger.
**2. Single cold-storage supplier with no backup (Launch-Blocking for the contingency plan)**
- Frostline is a single point of failure for the entire product. If they have a refrigeration failure, a capacity problem, a labor issue, or a late handoff, nothing ships.
- Spoiled or temperature-abused food is also a food-safety and reputation problem, not just a delay.
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- A full second supplier may not be realistic in the time left. A tested fallback is: a standby contract or spot arrangement, reefer vans or insulated overflow, and a clear stop-sell trigger.
**3. Promo is uncapped, so demand can't be throttled (Launch-Blocking)**
- 50% off the first box, advertised on radio, with no ordering cap and no delivery-slot limits, means orders come in whatever our capacity is.
- Radio demand is lumpy. A spike after a popular spot can exceed even the 1,100 forecast.
- Without a throttle, Tigers 1 and 2 are very likely to happen rather than just possible.
**4. Promo economics and retention (Fast-Follow)**
- Deep first-box discounts attract deal-seekers. If a large share never reorder, we've paid to acquire customers who don't stay.
- We should know our break-even repeat rate before we spend on radio, and track week-2 and week-4 reorder from day one.
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### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)
- **"Radio is the wrong channel, so nobody will notice."** For a hyper-local launch it's a reasonable fit, and a 50% offer is a strong hook. Under-demand is much less likely than over-demand.
- **"The discount will wreck margins."** It's a one-time, first-box cost, so the exposure is bounded. The real risk is retention (Tiger 4), not the discount itself.
- **"Launching one week after the ads start is too early or too late."** A short lead time is fine if there's a pre-order or scheduled-delivery flow. The problem is capacity, not timing.
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### Elephants (Unspoken Worries)
| Elephant | How to investigate |
|---|---|
| **How was the 1,100/day forecast built?** Is it with or without the promo, a day-one peak or a weekly average, and does it count pre-launch orders from the Nov 9 ads? | Walk through the model with Marketing/Finance and build low, base, and high cases. |
| **Is 18 deliveries/driver/day realistic in Rivertown?** It depends on route density, delivery windows, cold-chain handoffs, and how long it takes new drivers to ramp. | Do a test route run with real addresses and time windows. |
| **Can Frostline handle 1,100 boxes/day?** Their capacity, hours, and pickup process at that volume are unverified. | Get written capacity and SLA confirmation, and do a loading dry run. |
| **Is packing/fulfillment sized for 1,100/day?** Nothing mentioned covers it, and it's upstream of the drivers. | Time a packing dry run at volume. |
| **Customer support readiness.** Late boxes and missed deliveries create a spike in tickets and refunds. | Staff for 5–10% contact rate, and prepare macros and a refund policy. |
| **Food-safety and licensing sign-off** for storage and transport. | Confirm permits and temperature-monitoring protocol with Legal/Compliance. |
| **Driver attrition and onboarding.** Are all 40 trained, vetted, and committed for week one? | Get an actual count of active, trained drivers. |
| **Seasonal factors**, such as weather and holiday demand around mid-to-late November. | Check forecasts and holiday calendars against the delivery plan. |
---
### Action Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers
**1. Delivery capacity shortfall**
- **Risk:** 720/day capacity vs. 1,100/day forecast.
- **Mitigation:** Choose one or combine:
- (a) Hire at least 22 more drivers, ideally ~28 for buffer.
- (b) Contract a third-party courier or gig overflow for ~400/day.
- (c) Cap launch-week orders to match real capacity (about 650/day) and use a waitlist.
- **Owner:** Head of Operations/Logistics
- **Due:** Decision by **Nov 6**, three days before the ads start. Hiring and training must be complete by **Nov 13**.
**2. Single cold-storage supplier**
- **Risk:** One Frostline failure halts all fulfillment and can create a food-safety incident.
- **Mitigation:**
- Get written capacity and SLA confirmation from Frostline.
- Line up a backup (standby contract, spot cold storage, or reefer transport).
- Add temperature monitoring and alerts.
- Write a stop-sell and customer-comms plan.
- **Owner:** Supply Chain/Procurement, with Compliance
- **Due:** Frostline confirmation by **Nov 6**. Backup arrangement and a tested contingency plan by **Nov 12**.
**3. Uncapped promo demand**
- **Risk:** Radio-driven demand exceeds what we can deliver.
- **Mitigation:**
- Add delivery-slot inventory that closes when full.
- Add a daily order cap.
- Use a promo code so demand can be tracked and paused.
- Have a "sold out for this week, reserve your next slot" message.
- Align radio copy with the available dates.
- **Owner:** Product, with Marketing and Engineering
- **Due:** Throttle built and tested by **Nov 8**. Radio copy approved before **Nov 9**.
---
**Recommended next step:** The Nov 9 radio start is the real deadline, because that's when demand begins. Resolve the capacity decision (Tiger 1) and the throttle (Tiger 3) before then. If you share the forecast model, I can pressure-test it and refine the driver numbers.
I can't save files in this conversation, so copy this into `PreMortem-rivertown-meal-kit-[date].md` or tell me if you'd like it reformatted. Revisit this pre-mortem around Nov 2 to check that mitigations are on track.